Conjunctive Optimization of Demand and Supply in Integrated River Basin Management Models
River basin management models differ substantially from simulation models, since they typically use some type of mathematical optimization to help address numerous options that decision makers face regarding basin-wide water allocation. New paradigms have emerged that provide substantial improvements to previous modeling. They include a combination of multiple time step optimization (MTO), which optimizes basin allocation at all nodes and for all relevant time steps, in conjunction with the new equal deficit sharing constraint, which de facto optimizes the amount of hedging applied to water demand in dry years, thus enabling firm supply at reduced rates as a function of the reduced hydrologic input and the priority of allocation. The new approach is flexible. When combined with stochastic hydrologic input, it can provide excellent basis for statistical inference of the model solutions, which is a valuable basis for building short term operating rules.
