Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

May 2014

Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2014 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2014 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-April 2014 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
St. Mary River 644,000** 108 91-125 88 53/99 138*** 79/99
Belly River 225,000* 108 99-121 91 55/99 77*** 41/99
Waterton River 533,000* 108 96-126 85 49/99 97*** 50/99
Oldman River near Brocket 851,000* 98 86-125 75 42/99 136*** 75/99
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,595,000* 104 91-117 79 58/99 146*** 80/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2014 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share
*** - Recorded 2014 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change
Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca