Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2014
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2014 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2014 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2014 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 644,000** | 108 | 91-125 | 88 | 53/99 | 138*** | 79/99 | |
Belly River | 225,000* | 108 | 99-121 | 91 | 55/99 | 77*** | 41/99 | |
Waterton River | 533,000* | 108 | 96-126 | 85 | 49/99 | 97*** | 50/99 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 851,000* | 98 | 86-125 | 75 | 42/99 | 136*** | 75/99 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 2,595,000* | 104 | 91-117 | 79 | 58/99 | 146*** | 80/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2014 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2014 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca