Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2013
Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2013 - Bow River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2013 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 |
Volume as a % of Average |
Probable Range as a % of Average |
Potential Minimum as % of Average |
Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2013 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
Bow River at Banff | 946,000* | 99 | 95-103 | 91 | 35/99 | 111** | 78/99 | |
Lake Minnewanka Inflow | 160,000* | 98 | 87-115 | 78 | 42/99 | 96** | 52/99 | |
Spray River near Banff | 342,000* | 102 | 94-110 | 87 | 46/99 | 94** | 57/99 | |
Kananaskis River | 364,000* | 102 | 91-115 | 81 | 42/99 | 74** | 24/99 | |
Bow River at Calgary | 2,148,000* | 100 | 95-106 | 90 | 44/99 | 102** | 57/99 | |
Elbow River | 159,000* | 87 | 75-100 | 64 | 38/99 | 102** | 46/99 | |
Highwood River | 450,000* | 89 | 71-107 | 55 | 39/99 | 95** | 41/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2013 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - Recorded 2013 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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