Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
May 2007
Table 4b - Water Supply Forecast as of May 1, 2007 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for May 1 to September 30, 2007 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-April 2007 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 563,000** | 84 | 68-96 | 62 | 26/91 | 158*** | 80/91 | |
Belly River | 209,000* | 94 | 83-113 | 75 | 34/91 | 95*** | 46/91 | |
Waterton River | 504,000* | 92 | 76-109 | 68 | 35/91 | 130*** | 74/91 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 858,000* | 89 | 71-110 | 59 | 38/91 | 149*** | 78/91 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 2,260,000* | 86 | 65-95 | 55 | 36/91 | 133*** | 73/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2007 forecast minus the recorded volume to date
|
** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share *** - Recorded 2007 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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