Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

March 2006

Table 4 - Water Supply Forecast as of March 1, 2006 - Oldman River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for March 1 to September 30, 2006
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a % of Average Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum as % of Average Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-September 2005 Volume as a % of Average
St. Mary River 711,000* 95 81-119 61 41/91 77
Belly River 236,000 94 78-117 69 40/91 90
Waterton River 591,000 97 78-118 67 45/91 85
Oldman River near Brocket 1,029,000 94 74-122 57 41/91 132
Oldman River at Lethbridge 2,753,000 92 70-115 55 44/91 106
Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically
 

* - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share

Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period from 1912 to 2001

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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