Water Supply Outlook June 2016

Updated: June 6, 2016

Mountain runoff forecasts (natural volumes for March to September 2016)

Milk River basin

Oldman River basin
  • Below average for Oldman River near Brocket and at Lethbridge for the March to September period
  • Average for the St. Mary River, Belly River and Waterton River for the March to September period
  • Below average for June to September, except for Belly River, which is average
  • March-May recorded volumes are average, except for Waterton River, which is above average

Bow River basin
  • Much below average for Lake Minnewanka for the March to September period
  • Below average for Bow River at Calgary, Elbow River and Highwood River for the March to September period
  • Average for Bow River at Banff, Spray River and Kananaskis River for the March to September period
  • Below average for June to September, except for Bow River at Banff and Lake Minnewanka, which is much below average
  • March-May recorded volumes ranges from much below average to much above average

Red Deer River basin

North Saskatchewan River basin
  • Much below average for Lake Abraham (Bighorn Reservoir) and Brazeau Reservoir for the March to September period
  • Below average for North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton for the March to September period
  • Much below average for Lake Abraham (Bighorn Reservoir) and North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton for June to September, except for Brazeau Reservoir, which is below average
  • March-May recorded volumes are above average for Lake Abraham (Bighorn Reservoir) and North Saskatchewan River at Edmonton, except for Brazeau Reservoir, which is much below average

Precipitation can have a major impact on water supply between now and the end of September. The forecasts above assume that precipitation over the remainder of the winter period and through the summer will be normal. The range of possible precipitation scenarios is large however, and as a result, probable range forecasts and a minimal precipitation forecast of natural runoff volume are also provided for each individual basin. Since more information becomes known over time, forecast ranges will narrow. Streamflow volume forecasts are updated monthly from February to May, and again in July.

Check our Forecaster's Comments throughout the month for updated information regarding runoff conditions.

Mountain snowpack

Snow accumulations measured in the mountains as of June 1, 2016:

Snowmelt started 2-4 weeks early resulting in the low values surveyed this month.

  • Oldman River basin: Much below average to below average: ranges from 0% (Akamina Pass and South Racehorse Creek) to 54% (Gardiner Creek) of average.
  • Bow River basin: Much below average: ranges from 0% (Tent Ridge, Bow Summit, Mud Lake and Ptarmingan Hut) to 48% (Katherine Lake) of average. Outlier: Three Isle Lake - 98% of average.
  • Red Deer, North Saskatchewan River basins:

    Much below average for the Red Deer River basin: two sites in this basin – Gable Mountain at 0% and McConnell Creek at 0% of average.

    Much below average for the North Saskatchewan River basin: two sites in this basin - Limestone Ridge at 0% and Southesk at 0% of average.

  • Upper Peace River basin in British Columbia: as indicated in British Columbia's Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin

Mountain snowpack is an important source of water supply to reservoirs in the spring. Accumulation at this time of year typically accounts for nearly three-quarters of the seasonal total.

Plains Spring Snowmelt Runoff Forecasts (issued in March and April each year)

Plains Snowpack (issued in March and April each year; Cypress Hills mid to late January and February)

Precipitation

Contoured maps of precipitation amounts and as a percent of normal for the past month and for current and recent seasons are available here. Maps of precipitation amounts for the most recent day, week and month to date are available here.

Soil Moisture

Alberta Agriculture models soil moisture for non-mountainous, agricultural areas of Alberta. Modelled soil moisture compared to average as of May 30, 2016 is available here.

Long Lead Precipitation Outlooks

Environment and Climate Change Canada (issued on May 31, 2016): Temperatures is forecast to be above normal across the entire province except the extreme south, which is forecast to be normal for the June through August 2016 period. Precipitation is forecast to be normal across the province, except the northwest portion of the province where it is forecast to be above normal.

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) (issued on May 19, 2016): Above normal temperatures in the province for June to August 2016 and an equal chance of below normal, normal or above normal precipitation for June to August 2016.

Climate indicators: The NOAA reported on May 12, 2016 that La Niña is favored to develop during the Northern Hemisphere summer 2016, with about a 75% chance of La Nina during the fall and winter 2016-17.

Note that forecasting weather for such a long time period into the future is very difficult, and so the historical accuracy has been variable, dependent on location and time period, and is often low, more so for precipitation than temperature. Environment and Climate Change Canada provides an assessment of their forecast method's historical accuracy on their website.

Reservoir storage

Water storage volumes in the major irrigation and hydroelectric reservoirs of the Milk, Oldman, Bow, Red Deer North Saskatchewan, and Athabasca River basins is updated each weekday and is available in the Provincial Reservoir Storage Summary.

Questions

Background information on the Water Supply Outlook is available in Frequently Asked Questions

Media Contact:
Communications Division, Alberta Environment and Parks
Phone: (780) 427-8636