Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2016

Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2016 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2016 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Potential Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2016 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 432,000* 84 76-90 70 13/99 93** 32/99
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 55,000* 69 57-87 46 5/99 68** 6/99
Spray River near Banff 133,000* 80 73-87 66 17/99 87** 27/99
Kananaskis River 142,000* 78 70-88 63 7/99 89** 32/99
Bow River at Calgary 1,025,000* 89 84-94 80 25/99 81** 18/99
Elbow River 63,000* 74 62-97 51 21/99 60** 9/99
Highwood River 96,000* 55 29-92 6 17/99 45** 4/99

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2016 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

** - Recorded 2016 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the March to September 30 period from 1981-2009

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca