Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
July 2015
Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2015 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2015 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Reasonable Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-June 2015 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 149,000** | 73 | 57-89 | 43 | 17/99 | 91*** | 30/99 | |
Belly River | 60,000* | 78 | 67-90 | 57 | 21/99 | 95*** | 37/99 | |
Waterton River | 106,000* | 74 | 57-95 | 41 | 23/99 | 91*** | 26/99 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 183,000* | 77 | 60-109 | 44 | 37/99 | 86*** | 27/99 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 572,000* | 75 | 59-90 | 46 | 30/99 | 81*** | 26/99 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2015 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2015 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the March 1 to September 30 period 1981 to 2009 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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