Water Supply Outlook for Alberta
July 2009
Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2009 - Oldman River Basin
(Natural Flows) |
Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30, 2009 | Year to date | |||||||
Locations | Volume in dam3 | Volume as a % of Average | Probable Range as a % of Average | Potential Minimum as % of Average | Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) | Recorded March-June 2009 Volume as a % of Average | Ranking (lowest to highest) | |
St. Mary River | 156,000** | 66 | 56-100 | 36 | 18/91 | 69*** | 14/91 | |
Belly River | 59,200* | 72 | 60-102 | 50 | 16/91 | 78*** | 15/91 | |
Waterton River | 103,000* | 63 | 48-99 | 39 | 17/91 | 72*** | 16/91 | |
Oldman River near Brocket | 148,000* | 58 | 44-96 | 36 | 15/91 | 54*** | 9/91 | |
Oldman River at Lethbridge | 486,000* | 60 | 46-96 | 34 | 17/91 | 60*** | 12/91 |
*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2009 forecast minus the recorded volume to date ** - This value is the natural volume and includes the U.S. share*** - Recorded 2009 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 2001 NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage. |
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