Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

July 2002

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of July 1, 2002 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for July 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-June 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 531,000* 94 82-108 74 36/84 91** 28/84
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 76,900* 87 73-127 61 31/84 116** 63/84
Spray River near Banff 170,000* 97 82-127 73 37/84 95** 42/84
Kananaskis River 196,000* 95 75-112 70 38/84 120** 66/84
Bow River at Calgary 1,164,000* 94 76-114 66 40/84 99** 41/84
Elbow River 95,600* 104 90-134 79 57/84 134** 69/84
Highwood River 212,000* 106 74-149 51 56/84 118** 62/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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