Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

February 2008

January 2008 Precipitation

Precipitation in most of the province including the mountain areas of the Smoky and Athabasca River basins was much below normal. Precipitation in the mountains and foothills of southern and central basins were generally above normal to much above normal, however in several mountain locations in the Bow and North Saskatchewan River basins it varied from much below normal to normal (Figure 1). Above normal precipitation was recorded in the Cold Lake and Cypress Hills areas. January precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 2.
 

Winter Precipitation (November 1, 2007 to January 31, 2008)

Precipitation in the southern plains has been much below normal except for the Cypress Hills which recorded above normal precipitation. In the northern plains precipitation has been below normal to normal with the exception of the Fort Chipewyan and Grande Prairie-Jasper areas which recorded much below precipitation, and the Cold Lake area that recorded much above normal precipitation (Figure 3).

In the mountains and foothills the following precipitation was recorded: much below normal to below normal in the Athabasca and Smoky River basins, below normal to normal in the North Saskatchewan and Bow River basins, normal in the Upper Oldman River basin, and normal to above normal in the Upper Waterton, St. Mary and Belly River basins. Winter precipitation totals are illustrated in (Figure 4).


Fall Precipitation (September 1 to October 31, 2007)

Below to much below normal precipitation was recorded in most of the province (Figure 5). Above to much above normal precipitation was recorded in many mountain and foothill locations of the Banff-Pincher Creek area, in the Milk River-Cypress Hills area, and in the far north of the province that includes areas north of High Level and the Fort Chipewyan area. Some areas of the Upper Smoky and Athabasca River basins recorded normal to above normal precipitation. Fall precipitation totals are illustrated in Figure 6.

A map of soil moisture in the province as estimated by Alberta Agriculture can be seen here .


Long-Lead Precipitation Outlook

Environment Canada's long-lead forecast for Alberta issued on January 31, 2008 for the February through April 2008 period is for above normal precipitation and below normal temperatures. Canada's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/saisons/index_e.html.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) long-lead forecasts issued on January 17, 2008 for February through to the end of April 2008 is for equal chances of below normal, normal, and above normal temperatures and precipitation occuring in Southern Alberta. The NOAA reported January 17, 2008 that strong La Nina conditions are likely to continue throughout February, March and April 2008, followed by weaker La Nina conditions thereafter. NOAA's long-lead precipitation outlook is available from their website located at: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/90day/.


For technical enquires about this web page please contact Alberta Environment - Environmental Management Water Management Operations Branch at AENV-WebWS@gov.ab.ca