Water Supply Outlook for Alberta

August 2002

Table 4b Water Supply Forecast as of August 1, 2002 - Bow River Basin (Natural Flows)

Volume Forecast for August 1 to September 30 Year to date
Locations Volume in dam3 Volume as a
% of Average 		Probable Range as a % of Average Reasonable Minimum
as % of Average 		Forecast Ranking (lowest to highest) Recorded March-July 2002 Volume as a % of Average Ranking (lowest to highest)
Bow River at Banff 269,000* 96 82-126 72 35/84 95** 33/84
Lake Minnewanka Inflow 42,100* 97 87-153 78 50/84 107** 54/84
Spray River near Banff 81,800* 97 84-121 77 45/84 99** 41/84
Kananaskis River 111,000* 104 92-136 83 58/84 121** 69/84
Bow River at Calgary 601,000* 95 79-126 68 46/84 101** 48/84
Elbow River 52,300* 106 77-172 69 61/84 124** 64/84
Highwood River 83,900* 94 73-114 45 58/84 113** 57/84

*NOTE: The forecast shown is the March to September 2002 forecast minus the recorded volume to date

Note: Click on the site Location to see the Water Supply Forecast graphically

** - Recorded 2002 natural volumes are preliminary and subject to change

Average is calculated for the period 1912 to 1995

NOTE: There is: a 50% chance that the actual natural flow will fall within the probable range given; a 25% chance that the actual flow will be less than the lower bound of the probable range given; and a 10% chance that the actual natural flow will be less than the reasonable minimum. Actual day to day streamflow conditions may vary throughout the season as a result of the effects of streamflow diversion and reservoir storage.

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